When conducting an emissions analysis, we estimate the reduction in power sector emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and mercury (Hg) from potential amended energy conservation standards, as well as emissions that occur directly from gas and oil-using products. In addition, we estimate emissions impacts in production activities (extracting, processing, and transporting fuels) that provide the energy inputs to power plants or buildings. These are referred to as "upstream" emissions. Together, these emissions account for the full-fuel cycle. The emissions analysis also includes impacts of standards on emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, both of which are greenhouse gases.
The emissions analysis is conducted using emissions factors derived from data in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook, supplemented by data from other sources. EIA prepares the Annual Energy Outlook using National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), which is a public domain, multi-sectored, partial equilibrium model of the U.S. energy sector. Each annual version of NEMS incorporates the projected impacts of existing air quality regulations on emissions.
A recent example of an emissions analysis is described in chapter 13 in the Final Rule Technical Support Document for Dehumidifiers.
Utility Impacts Analysis
In the utility impacts analysis, we analyze the changes over time in national electric installed capacity and electricity generation that result for each proposed efficiency standard level. The utility impact analysis uses a variant of the NEMS.
A recent example of a utility impact analysis is described in chapter 15 in the Final Rule Technical Support Document for Dehumidifiers.
Employment Impacts Analysis
The employment impact analysis examines indirect employment impacts from standards, which consist of the net jobs created or eliminated in the national economy, other than in the manufacturing sector being regulated, caused by:
- Reduced spending by end-users on energy
- Reduced spending on new energy supply by the utility industry
- Increased spending on new equipment to which the new standards apply
- The effects of those three factors throughout the economy.
A recent example of an employment impacts analysis is described in chapter 16 in the Final Rule Technical Support Document for Dehumidifiers.
Coughlin, Katie. Projections of Full-Fuel-Cycle Energy and Emissions Metrics. Berkeley: LBNL, 2013. LBNL-6025E. PDF.
Coughlin, Katie. Utility Sector Impacts of Reduced Electricity Demand. 2014. LBNL-6864E. PDF.
Coughlin, Katie. Utility Sector Impacts of Reduced Electricity Demand: Updates to Methodology and Results. 2019. LBNL-2001256. PDF.